1) No Champions League Football May Affect Recruitment this Summer
The best players in the world want to play in the Champions League and that’s no secret. Whilst the club has several attractive points including its location, history, reputation, European (UEL) status etc., UCL football has a certain pull that when a club goes without it, it limits the profile of player that the club can attract.
Take Dusan Vlahovic for example. Maybe if we were in the Champions League this season then signing him back in January would’ve been more likely. And maybe if we were able to sign a forward of his quality then we would’ve been more likely to have secured a top four finish this year. In another Juventus-based example, journalist Marcello Chirico was reporting recently that Paulo Dybala would be likely to join Arsenal if the club qualify for next season’s Champions League. Furthermore, Manchester City’s Gabriel Jesus, who has been heavily linked with a move to North London, may potentially be put off by the fact that Arsenal have spurned their chance at returning to the Champions League next season. For many top players, Champions League football is a deal-breaker.
Having said that, the club do have a decent record of being able to recruit high quality players without being in the UCL. A 28 year-old Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, a 27 year-old Thomas Partey and a 22 year-old Martin Ødegaard have all signed for the club during its Champions League hiatus. However, how many more top-quality players the club will be able to sign after another year in in Europe’s second-tier competition remains to be seen.
2) Thursday-Sunday Schedule May Negatively Impact Already Thin & Injury-prone Squad for League
It’s no revelation that the gruelling Thursday-Sunday Europa League schedule takes a toll on a club’s form in their domestic league (see: Arsenal seasons 2017/18, 2018/19, 2019/20, 2020/21). Having to travel all around Europe to the obscurest of locations, ranging from Razgrad to Cluj-Napoca takes an obvious toll on the players physically and mentally, and returning late in the week with limited time to dedicate to prepare for the weekend’s Premier League opponents is far from ideal for optimal performances and results.
This season showed us how thin our squad is. Injuries to some of our most important players in the likes of Kieran Tierney and Thomas Partey severely impacted our league form, and at times we looked unrecognisable without our key men. To put it simply, our current squad struggled to cope with a fairly meek schedule this season, considering we were out of all of the Cups by mid-January and weren’t competing in Europe. The sheer increase in volume of games, travelling, recovery time needed etc. that UEL football will bring next season worries me in terms of how our squad will be able to manage and how this will subsequently impact our Premier League form.
3) Another Year Without UCL Football Affects Identity of The Club
Pre-2017, you could ask any average football fan to tell you about Arsenal as a club and the likelihood is they would probably use the words ‘Champions League’ to describe the level that it was consistently at. The truth is, when you used to think about Arsenal, you used to almost instantly associate it with the Champions League. Between 1998 and 2016, the club competed in 19 consecutive UCL campaigns. Within that run, from 2003 onwards the club impressively made it out of the group stage every single year, coming agonisingly close to full glory in Paris in 2006.
However, since missing out on a place in the Premier League top four to Liverpool by a single point in 2016/17, the club’s identity has slowly begun to change from a consistent Champions League side to a side that keeps falling short and ending up in UEFA’s second-tier European competition. If Spurs don’t fail to beat Norwich on Sunday (please Pukki please), then next season will be Arsenal’s fifth time competing in the Europa League in six seasons. At what point does the general football community start permanently labelling Arsenal as a Europa League outfit and disassociating our historic club from Europe’s elite competition?
4) Top Four Finish Likely to be Even Harder Next Season
As much as it hurts to say, Manchester City and Liverpool are light years ahead of us as clubs, and I realistically give us next to no chance to finish above either of these two world class sides next season. That leaves two spots in the top four to play for.
To put it mildly, Manchester United have been a complete shambles this season, accruing their lowest points total in Premier League history. Erik ten Hag is a competent manager who is likely to be given a generous budget in this summer’s transfer window to add further quality to an already talented team, and will no doubt imprint his own effective playing style on the squad over time. You have to think that they’ll improve on a 6th-place finish next season.
Antonio Conte has worked his magic on our North London rivals, who are sadly set to pip us to a fourth-place finish in the league this year. The Italian managed to steer Tottenham back into the top four on the back of a dismal few months under Nuno Espirito Santo, and even through enduring several below par results and slip-ups under his guidance. As they reminded us a couple of weeks ago, Kane and Son are world class footballers in their prime, and if the 52 year-old can keep hold of both of Tottenham’s star men whilst adding some more quality in the Summer, there’s no doubt that Spurs will be better next season than they were this season.
Unfortunately, Chelsea finished above us for the 6th year in a row this season. Our West London foes reached two Cup Finals, losing both on penalties, and were extremely close to reaching another Champions League semi-final. All in all, Thomas Tuchel has done a great job since his appointment in January 2021. Although things are still up in the air with regards to their new ownership, Chelsea are likely to spend big again in the transfer window as they always do, and the Blues are always strong favourites to finish in the Premier League top four. In fact, they will probably be disappointed if they don’t push City or Liverpool a little closer for the Premier League title next season. They will be there or there abouts.
Moreover, the likes of Leicester City, West Ham, Wolves and so on are set to strengthen this Summer and will be pushing for European places again next season, and are no pushovers themselves.
So, to summarise a lengthy point, the standard of sides pushing for a top four finish next season will be much higher. With the rate that sides were slipping up at this season, it almost felt like whoever was the best of a bad bunch would finish fourth. I can’t see that being the case next season. The side that finishes fourth will have to be consistent, resilient and able to capitalise on rivals dropping points. Finishing fourth will be much harder for Arsenal in the 2022/23 season.
5) Young Talents Like Saka More Likely to Leave a Club Without UCL Football at Some Point
This point largely relates to the first one made in this article. The best players in Europe want to play in Europe’s elite competition, and it’s no different for the best young players in Europe. The current Arsenal side is bursting with elite young talent with uncapped potential. The likes of Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Emile Smith Rowe and Martin Ødegaard are just a few of the high-quality youngsters which made the 2021/22 so exciting to watch at times for us Arsenal fans.
The former recently made the 6-man shortlist for both the PFA Player and Young Player of The Season Awards for the 2021/22 Premier League season – a feat that he should be extremely proud of. There is no doubt in my mind that Bukayo is firmly on the radar of the top European teams competing for the Champions League. It’s probably only a matter of time before a bid is tabled for Arsenal’s 20 year-old star-boy, and the longer the club goes without UCL football the harder it will be to keep hold of Saka and his age-mates, who no doubt will want to be able to show off their talents on Tuesday and Wednesday nights in the Champions League..
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