(Photo Credit: David Klein)
I think I speak for all Arsenal fans when I say that celebrating our 95th minute winner against Wolves last night to complete the comeback was one of the best moments we’ve had as fans of the club all season. It’s crazy how one single moment in a game can completely change your outlook and feelings about the rest of the season.
The game was a typically frustrating one to watch, and before we snatched it in added time, it is one that we’ve probably seen a few too many times at The Emirates under Mikel Arteta. It included a defensive error to give our opposition a goal, the referee not giving us a clear penalty, our striker missing several chances, and what was looking like more points to be dropped. The only thing it was probably missing was a Granit Xhaka red card.
Credit to Mikel Arteta though, who made a substitution in the 71st-minute to introduce the much-needed flair and directness of Nicolas Pepe, who was absolutely brilliant when he came on and completely changed the game. Not only did the Ivorian score the equaliser to get us back in the game just 10 minutes after coming on, but he played the all-important through ball to Lacazette, and would’ve ended his 20-minute appearance with a goal and an assist had Laca finished more emphatically instead of forcing an own goal out of Jose Sa.
That injury time own goal which had the stadium erupting may have just given us the boost in optimism, belief, and points that we need to push us over the line and secure that all-important top four finish which has alluded us for over half a decade.
Let’s take a brief look at our final 14 games and see how they may go, and whether we can accumulate enough points to bring Champions League nights back to The Emirates Stadium.
GAME 25: Watford (A)
Since Roy Hodgson’s appointment at Vicarage Road, despite not being the most entertaining or exciting side to watch, Watford have visibly improved. Even though they are coming off the back of a hurtful 4-1 loss to Crystal Palace last night, the scoreline when looked at in isolation may not tell the full story of the game. The Hornets only conceded an xG of 0.74, and surprisingly recorded an xG themselves of 1.68, over double that of Crystal Palace, suggesting that the result and deficit of defeat may have been slightly harsh on Watford. Let’s not forget that it was only a week ago that they travelled to Villa Park and recorded an impressive away win.
Games against sides within the bottom three are always harder than they look on paper, and despite our reputation as flat-track bullies, Watford could be a banana skin for us to slip on in our bid for a UCL spot. We can’t just look at the Crystal Palace result and think that this will be a walk in the park. The Hornets will be hard to break down and have enough talent up top, especially with the recent return of Ismail Sarr, to give our defence some problems.
Having said that, Watford are rock bottom in the home table for all Premier League games this season, having lost 10 of their 13 games at Vicarage Road, and we should have enough quality and determination to record an important win against Woy’s boys.
Prediction: Arsenal win
GAME 26: Leicester (H)
The chance for us to take on Leicester couldn’t have come at a much better time. It seems like just yesterday that Brendan Rodgers was tipped by many pundits to be the man to take over from Arsene Wenger back in 2018. Recently, however, Rodgers and the club’s stock have both dropped drastically.
The Foxes sit in the bottom half of the Premier League table and are without a win in the competition in 2022. They are conceding goals for fun, and to get to the point, if we are serious about securing a top four finish then this is a home game that we cannot afford to slip up in.
Prediction: Arsenal win
GAME 27: Liverpool (H)
Liverpool are flying right now, and seem to be back to their punishing best, having just tore Leeds United apart 6-0 at Anfield. They are the only side in the top-flight to have won all of their last 9 games in a row across all competitions, and look poised to comfortably reach another UCL quarter-final after their recent 2-0 win away at Inter Milan. With City’s slip up to Spurs last Sunday, The Reds are now well and truly back in the title race, and they know that they can’t afford to slip up after being afforded the opportunity to keep a what once looked like a dead and buried title race alive and kicking.
Even though we’re at home, this will be our toughest three points to earn of the 15 league games left. As much as I’d love to predict a draw or win against the Reds, with the form that they’re in, with the form that the Premier League’s top scorer and arguably best player in the world is on right now on the right wing, with the title race recently blown wide open, it’s just too unrealistic to do so. They’re several years ahead of us as a team and showed that to us at Anfield back in November.
Prediction: Loss to Liverpool
GAME 28: Aston Villa (A)
Villa comfortably sit in the bottom-half of the table and have entered a run of poor form under PL great Steven Gerrard, with back-to-back 1-0 losses to relegation-battling Newcastle and Watford. By the time we play them however, they will have had a chance to get back on track with a trip to Brighton, a home game with the Saints, and an away game at Elland Road.
After losing home and away to The Villains last season, I’d like us to get revenge and it would be satisfying for us to complete the PL double over them this season for a bit of payback. Again, although Villa Park is always a tough place to go, this is a game that we shouldn’t be dropping any points in if we are to secure a finish in the top four.
Prediction: Arsenal win
GAME 29: Chelsea (A) [date yet to be confirmed*]
When Chelsea came to The Emirates back in August, they comfortably played us off our own patch. The battle between Romelu Lukaku and Pablo Mari was almost microcosmic of the relationship between London’s two most successful clubs of the last decade – Romelu and Chelsea came out on top, and did so pretty comprehensively. Since then, it has to be said that we’ve done extremely well to narrow the gap between our West London rivals. We’re 5 points behind the European Champions with a game in hand – who would’ve thought it after that 2-0 loss to the Blues back in the Summer?
Despite goals not flowing as generously as they may have previously, Chelsea have been in good form. The club were recently crowned Club World Cup Champions, beat Crystal Palace 1-0 on their Premier League return, and comfortably defeated Lille in the first leg of their Round of 16 tie on their return to UCL action. They are unbeaten since January 15th and will want to get one back on us at Stamford Bridge for our 1-0 win there back in May 2021.
This is by some distance our toughest away game left of the season, and it would be absolutely gigantic for the club to register another win at Stamford Bridge against a team that aren’t too far away from us in the table. Having said that, our lack of ruthlessness in front of goal, combined with Chelsea’s solid home form and an up-for-it Stamford Bridge says to me that we may just fall short.
Prediction: a narrow loss to Chelsea
GAME 30: Crystal Palace (A)
As of writing this piece, Vieira’s side are fresh off winning their first league game of the calendar year, recording an important 4-1 victory over Watford, which was well overdue after their recent struggle for Premier League points. The Eagles had one of the best first halves of the season that they’ve ever had in the top flight, recording impressive wins, and wins to nil at that, against the likes of Manchester City, Spurs and Wolves.
Mikel Arteta will know first-hand of Palace’s quality, after needing a 95th-minute equaliser from Alexandre Lacazette back in October to avoid defeat at The Emirates.
Conor Gallagher has been one of the best young players in the league this season, combining natural goalscoring ability with tireless work-rate, and the likes of Michael Olise, Eberichi Eze and Wilfried Zaha all have undeniable attacking talent that can trouble any defence in the country, with the latter once admired and wanted by the club.
Palace are very hard to predict, evidenced by the calibre of aforementioned clubs which they’ve taken three points from this season. However, they also possess the ability to lose games to struggling opposition, having lost games to Watford and Leeds United this season, and can drop points on any given weekend, as they have to Brentford, Burnley and Norwich.
With the talent that Palace have, combined with the fact that this is an away game which The Eagles always seem extra up for, this will be far from a routine three points. Crystal Palace really are a wildcard, but I’m tipping our quality to shine through so that we can take all three points back with us from South to North London.
Prediction: Arsenal win
GAME 31: Brighton (H)
Under Graham Potter’s careful guidance, Brighton have established themselves as a solid Premier League side that can give even the top teams a real game on their day. With a durable defence, real midfield talent in the likes of Yves Bissouma & Leo Trossard, and an unpredictable wildcard in Neil Maupay upfront (as Bernd Leno and Matteo Guendouzi know too well), they can beat any team in the league on their day.
Although the consensus would seem to suggest that it’s harder to play Brighton when visiting them at The Amex, the story of this season states the opposite. Brighton sit a surprising 16thplace in the 2021/22 home table (as of writing), yet find themselves 7th in the away table, implying that the Seagulls find it easier to pick up Premier League points on the road.
Our comfortable 2-0 home win against them last season was made a little easier than usual considering it was the final game of the season and Brighton had little to play for but pride. This game will be tougher, as they aim to remain undefeated against us this season after our 0-0 draw with them back in October, which truth-be-told they deserved to win. Although Brighton sometimes suffer from creating chances and not taking them, we suffer from the exact same thing too (see Arsenal 2-1 Wolves).
I still have nightmares of the 1-1 draw towards the end of the 2018/19 season against them at The Emirates. A win on that day would’ve seen us finish inside the top four. Funnily enough, a win against them by a margin of two goals would’ve actually seen us finish in third place above Chelsea on goal difference. Fine margins..
This is frustratingly another game against them in which I can see us dropping points.
Prediction: A 0-0 or 1-1 draw
GAME 32: Southampton (A)
The Saints are flying at the moment, with wins over Norwich, Tottenham and Everton, and have recently picked up points against both Manchester Clubs. Ralph Hasenhuttl is doing a tremendous job and seems to have found an impressive partnership up top between the talented Chelsea youth product Armando Broja and the very underrated Che Adams.
Southampton have won four of their last 5 games at home, and St.Mary’s is a stadium where nightmares have been realised by us Arsenal fans. How can we forget when they surprisingly battered us 4-0 out of nowhere to halt our title challenge back on Boxing Day 2015? Or back under Unai Emery when the Saints ended our 22-game unbeaten run with a 3-2 win back in December 2018? These are awful memories. Southampton are very good, and although a win would be welcome, I can see us drawing another game here and leaving the South of the country with just a point.
Prediction: Draw
GAME 33: Man United (H)
The story in our frustrating 3-2 loss at Old Trafford last December was that a close-fought game between sides fighting for the same goal was decided by Manchester United’s match-winning talent, which we have seemed to lack at crucial moments this season.
Our record against The Red Devils at The Emirates in recent years has been good, with us recording comfortable wins to nil by a margin of two goals or higher in 4 of the last 6 seasons (3-0 in 2015/16, 2-0 in 2016/17, 2-0 in 2018/19, 2-0 in 2020/21). However, despite blips along the road since his appointment, Rangnick seems to be slowly turning Manchester United into more of a structured team, and this is set to be a massive game between arguably the league’s two front-runners in the race for fourth place.
This spectacle could either be as dull as last season’s goalless draw at The Emirates, or as explosive as the 5-goal thriller in the reverse fixture at the end of last year. This one really could go either way. I’m going to go for a score draw in this one, with neither side able to take all three valuable points.
Prediction: Score draw
GAME 34: West Ham (A)
All in all, The Hammers are having a good season. Despite a recent drop-off in league form, they are still among the candidates battling for a top 6 finish, and are joint-fourth favourites at the bookmakers to win the Europa League, which would be no mean feat for David Moyes’ side.
One of the league’s hardest sides to predict, they have recorded wins against Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs this season, but also lost to the likes of Leeds and Brentford and dropped points to Burnley, Palace, and a Leicester side which was severely out of form. It’s highly unlikely that this one will be as exciting an affair as last season’s 3-3 draw, which saw us 3-goals down at 45 minutes in East London, only to finish the game almost disappointed we didn’t win it 4-3.
The Hammers have been heavily reliant on the red-hot form of Jared Bowen, who has been winning them points almost single-handedly in the last couple of months since the goals of Michal Antonio dried up, who started the season with 4 PL goals in the first 3 games, only to score the same amount in the next 22 gameweeks. Chances are, if we can keep him quiet, this is a London derby that we can win on the road.
Prediction: Arsenal win
GAME 35: Tottenham (A)
There’s nothing quite like a North London Derby. This is a game that should’ve been played much earlier in the season, but a late exemption granted by the Premier League due to our injury-hit and COVID-struck squad meant that it had to wait. Both clubs have the same goal this season – to finish in that prized fourth place.
Spurs’ last two games pretty much sum them up as a club – go to the League leaders and put 3 past them to record a shock victory, only to render it pretty much meaningless by heading up to Burnley and leaving with nothing. You never really know what Tottenham you’re going to get, and when you add that level of unpredictability to the unpredictability that the North London derby already brings, this game really could treat us to anything.
There’s no two ways about it, this game is massive. It’s set to be a fiery affair and could be one of the games of the season. Games against Tottenham can make your week or ruin it, and for some reason, I have a weird feeling about this one. Last season’s 2-0 loss at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium still hasn’t been erased from my mind, despite our brilliant 3-1 home win this season in the reverse fixture. This game could either make our season or break it. I just can’t predict a loss to them, but equally I’m struggling to confidently foresee a win, hence I’m predicting an eventful but fence-sitting draw in North London.
Prediction: Score draw
GAME 36: Leeds (H)
It will come as no surprise that no side has conceded more goals than Leeds United this season – 56 in 25 games. We’ve scored 4 goals in each of our last 2 games against The Peacocks, who are amongst the few sides hovering just above the relegation zone right now, and find themselves in real danger of potentially heading back down to the Championship.
The problem with this tie, much like next fixture, is the time in which we’re set to play it. With it being the third last game of the season, Leeds are likely to be in real need of at least a point if their current form continues and the likes of Newcastle and Burnley continue with their upward trajectories. They are set to come to The Emirates and throw the kitchen sink at us, which tells me that this game is poised to have goals in it. We’ll likely need to outscore them if we’re to win all three points.
All-in-all, I have to back us for the home win, although I do believe Leeds will score once or twice and probably make life harder for us than it has to be.
Prediction: Arsenal win
GAME 37: Newcastle (A)
The penultimate game of the season, away to a capacity crown St James’ Park, up against a rejuvenated Newcastle United side who have won three, drawn two and lost none of their last 5 Premier League games as things stand.. What could go wrong?
In all seriousness, the relegation battle looks like it could go down to the wire, which would mean that there’s a good chance that Newcastle will also need to take something from this game to boost their chances of survival. The dream for us is that they’re safe and sound by Gameweek 37, but we can’t bank on that happening, so right now we have to look at this game as a massive encounter between a team who desperately want to finish in the Champions League places vs a team who desperately want to finish above 18th in the table. This should be an exciting one for the neutrals, but a nail-biting one for the Gunners & the Geordies.
The Magpies have found a new lease of life under new gaffer Eddie Howe, and something tells me they are going to make life very difficult for us in this one. I can see a desmond playing out in the North of the country, which could massively help or hinder either side.
Prediction: Score draw
GAME 38: Everton (H)
Everton have been atrocious this season. The appointment of former Reds’ boss Rafa Benitez had disaster written all over it, and the Spaniard was justifiably sacked after only 6 months on Merseyside. The club sit in 16th place at the moment, and have been well and truly sucked into a surprise relegation battle. We must hope that Everton have enough quality to be safe and sound by the final game of the season, but with the way that they’re playing at the moment, you never know.
Regardless of how much Everton may need a point (or maybe even three) in the last game of the season against us, the Toffees sit bottom of the Premier League away table, and for good reason, winning just one of their 12 away games, drawing 3 and losing 8 games on the road this season. I think we’ve all erased Bernd Leno’s error and our loss to them last season from our memory, and typically, we do have a near-flawless record against Everton at The Emirates.
This is a must win game, especially if the top four race goes down to the final game of the season, which it easily could, and there’s no room for slip ups with United travelling to Palace and Tottenham travelling to Norwich in games that you would expect both of our rivals to win. I’m calling a home win for us on the final day of the season.
Prediction: Arsenal win
The Round-Up:
Wins predicted: 7
Draws predicted: 5
Losses predicted: 2
Total Points Won: 26 out of a possible 42
Current points in Premier League table: 45
Points predicted to finish on: 71
I’ve predicted 7 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from our remaining 14 games for us to end the season on 71 points. Maybe optimistic, maybe conservative, who knows.
Will 71 points be enough to finish in the top four? Well, it would have been in all 3 of the past 3 seasons, and with the rate at which the sides challenging for fourth have been dropping points on any given day, it suggests to me that this season that total would also be enough. What do you think?
Let’s cross our fingers, support the team through thick and thin, and hope that we pick up enough points to bring UCL football back to The Emirates.
COYG.
UberArsenal - Blogging about The Arsenal 
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